It's the 2nd Leg of the Semi Final between Arsenal and Man Utd
tonight...

Champions League holders Man Utd take a 1-0 aggregate lead to the
Emirates Stadium. You can check out all the teams' Head-2-Head
stats on our website - and the Scoreboard will go 'live' at kick
off with the Goals, Corners and Bookings stats updating every
minute:

www.ChampionsLeagueBet.co.uk Password: *******

I've gone through all the stats and all the bookies' markets - and
highlighted 2 standout bets for tonight's game...

Arsenal v Manchester Utd

TONIGHT - Tue 5th May, 7.45pm
Live on ITV1
Ref: Roberto Rosetti

1st Leg score: 1-0 Man Utd

Match Result:

Arsenal need to win tonight - or they're out. A 1-0 win would take
the tie to Extra Time. Any other score-line and they need to win by
more than 1 goal.

Man Utd don't need to win - a draw would be enough. And if Man Utd
score, a 1-goal defeat (2-1 etc) would also put them through, on
the away goals rule.

Picking the match winner looks tough...

·         Arsenal haven't lost any of their last 27 home games in the
Champions League - the last team to beat them was Chelsea in 2004

·         Man Utd are on a record-breaking unbeaten run in the
Champions League games - they haven't lost home or away in any of
their last 24 games

Arsenal's home record in this season's competition is 'won 4 drawn
1 and lost none.' While Man Utd's away record is 'won 2 drawn 3 and
lost none.'

Earlier this season Arsenal beat Man Utd 2-1 at the Emirates
Stadium in the Premier League. Man Utd's last win at Arsenal was in
the 2004/5 season.

• In the last 3 Champions League seasons, there have been no
  away wins in the Semi Final, 2nd Legs - there have been 3 home wins
  and 3 draws.

Taking into account the results that both teams 'need' tonight,
opposing Man Utd could pay off...

Arsenal are Evens (2.00) on the '0 Asian Handicap' with William
Hill and Victor Chandler - a bet that wins if Arsenal win the game,
and gives you your money back if it's a draw.

• The Draw is 12/5 (3.40) with Coral and Skybet. Considering
  both teams' 'unbeaten' records, that option looks good value.

Check here for the best odds on the Match Result:

http://odds.sportsbettingxtra.co.uk/football/champions-league/

Goals:

Arsenal haven't conceded a single goal at home in the Champions
League this season. They've played 5 games at the Emirates Stadium
- scored 9 and conceded none.

Man Utd are also on a run of Clean Sheets - they haven't conceded a
goal in any of their last 3 away Champions League games.

Arsenal - Home
Total Goals = 1.80 per game
Under 2.5 Goals games = 60%

Man Utd - Away
Total Goals = 1.20 per game
Under 2.5 Goals games = 80%

Those 'low Goals' stats are backed up by both teams' Premier League
records this season. 64% of Arsenal home games and 70% of Man Utd
away games have paid out on Under 2.5 Goals bets.

There was just 1 goal scored in last week's Semi Final matches (Man
Utd 1 Arsenal 0, Barcelona 0 Chelsea 0)...

And in the past 3 Champions League seasons, 5 out of 6 Semi Final,
2nd Leg games have been Under 2.5 Goals.

• Under 2.5 Goals is 8/11 (1.73) with Stan James, Betfred, Blue
  Square, Bet365 and Totesport tonight

Check here for the latest Goals odds:

http://odds.sportsbettingxtra.co.uk/football/champions-league/

9/1 and 6/1 'low Goals' bets...

We've mentioned both the Draw and Under 2.5 Goals so far. Following
on from those stats, the 0-0 and 1-1 score-lines offer much bigger
odds...

The 0-0 Correct Score is 9/1 with Coral, while 1-1 is a best-priced
6/1 with Blue Square. Check here for the best odds on this market:

http://odds.sportsbettingxtra.co.uk/football/champions-league/

Corners:

There were just 4 corners in the last week's game - and the stats
suggest there could be another low total tonight...

Arsenal have an impressive 80% record for Under 10.5 Corners games
at home this season. In fact, 4 out of 5 games have 9 or less
corners in them.

• Arsenal's home AND away Champions League games have averaged
  Under 10.5 Corners per game this season

Those trends are supported by last season's figures, too. In the
2007/8 Champions League, 80% of all Arsenal's games paid out a
winner on Under 10.5 Corners bets.

Man Utd have a lower Under 10.5 Corners record of 40% away this
season, with games averaging 12 corners per game. However, it's
worth noting that Man Utd haven't conceded more than 5 corners in
any of their away games...

When Man Utd play out a 'high Corners' game, it's usually because
they need goals - and are committed to attacking play. This will
not necessarily be the case tonight.

Bookies are offering bets on Under 10 Corners and Under 11 Corners
tonight. The best option is to cover yourself for anything up to 12
corners...

Last but not least...

Cards and Booking Points

The bookies set their line at Under 45 Booking Points in the 1st
Leg, but there was just 1 yellow card (10 pts) in the game. The
same 'Under' bets are available tonight...

Both teams have low Booking Points 'For' stats, averaging less than
2 yellow cards (less than 20 pts) each per game:

Arsenal - Home
Booking Points For = 16.0 per game

Man Utd - Away
Booking Points For = 16.0 per game

The fact that several players will be walking a 'disciplinary
tightrope' tonight also makes the case for a 'low Bookings' bet...

7 players are just one yellow card away from being suspended for
the Champions League Final. For Arsenal - van Persie, Song, Diaby
and Nasri are all one yellow card away from a suspension. And for
Man Utd the same applies to Rooney, Tevez and Evra.

Last week we mentioned the trend for 'low Bookings' in the Semi
Finals. Over the past 3 Champions League seasons, 5 of the 6 Semi
Final, 2nd Leg games have had less than 50 Booking Points.

• In fact, 10 of the last 12 Champions League Semi Final games
  would've paid out a winner on 'Under 50 Booking Points' bets.

Bet365, Betfred, Blue Square and 888 Sport all offer 'Under' bets
that cover that outcome tonight.

Cards and Bookings bets...

Most bookies use these scoring systems for Cards and Booking Points
bets:

Cards (eg. Bet365)
Yellow Card = 1 Card, Red Card = 2 Cards. 
Most one player can get in a game = 3 Cards.

Booking Points
Yellow Card = 10 pts, Red Card = 25 pts. 
Most one player can get in a game = 35 pts.

Tonight's Recommended Bets...

Here's a summary of our 2 recommended bets for tonight's game.

Arsenal v Man Utd:

·         'Under 10 Corners' @ 15/8 (with half as much staked on '10-12
Corners' @ 2/1 as a saver bet) with William Hill

·         'Asian Total Cards 'Under 4.5' @ 19/20 with Bet365

You can find the best odds on all bets for Arsenal v Man Utd here.

And finally...

Big-odds Trebles at Paddy Power

Paddy Power are offering some big-odds 'Live Trebles' for tonight's
game, combining the Corners, Bookings and Match Result markets.

We've highlighted low Corners and Bookings bets tonight - here are
the Paddy Power bets that fit the bill:

·         Arsenal to win the match, 10 or less corners and up to and
including 40 Booking Points is 11/1

·         The Draw, 10 or less corners and up to and including 40
Booking Points is 14/1

·         Man Utd to win, 10 or less corners and up to and including 40
Booking Points is 11/1

I'll write to you again tomorrow with the latest results, and all
the stats for Chelsea v Barcelona...

Best wishes,

Matt Nesbitt

Champions League Profit Service
www.ChampionsLeagueBet.co.uk
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