The Champions League gets serious tonight - it's the Quarter
Finals...

There are 2 games this evening (see below) and 2 more on Wednesday.
And we're giving you our top stats and recommended bets on all of
them. Plus, remember to use the Head-2-Head data on our website for
an at-a-glance guide to the top match-ups for each fixture.

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The Scoreboard on the homepage will go 'live' with all the team
line-ups and minute-by-minute Goals, Scorers, Corners and Bookings
stats from kick off at 7.45pm this evening.

Tonight's bets...

We've gone through all the stats and markets for both tonight's
games - Man Utd v Porto and Villarreal v Arsenal - and highlighted
the best match-ups for you...

Manchester Utd v Porto

Live on ITV1, kick off 7.45pm
Ref: Konrad Plautz

Let's look at the Goals, Bookings and Corners stats for these
teams...

GOALS

Last season Man Utd were '1-0 home win' specialists in the
Champions League. But this time more goals have been going in at
Old Trafford:

• 50% of Man Utd's home Champions League games have been Over
  2.5 Goals this season

And Porto have been involved in plenty of high-scoring games...

• 100% of Porto away Champions League games have been Over 2.5
  Goals this season (4 out of 4)

Here are Porto's away results:

Arsenal 4 Porto 0
Dynamo Kiev 1 Porto 2
Fenerbahce 1 Porto 2
Atletico Madrid 2 Porto 2

The recent league form of both teams favours the 'Over 2.5' option,
too.

·         4 of Man Utd's last 5 home games in the Premier League have
been 'Over 2.5 Goals'

·         4 of Porto's last 5 away games in the Portuguese league have
been 'Over 2.5 Goals'

With this being a Quarter Final 1st Leg, we would usually expect a
tight game. However, by their standards, Man Utd have been
conceding a lot of goals recently - 6 Goals Against in their last 2
home league games.

And in terms of potential Goalscorers - Man Utd are expected to
play strikers Cristiano Ronaldo and Wayne Rooney, and Porto have
the tournament's second-top scorer, Lisandro Lopez.

• Under 2.5 Goals is 4/5 (1.80) tonight, and Over 2.5 can be
  backed at Evens (2.00). Over 2.5 Goals looks the better value bet
  out of the two.

BOOKING POINTS

The bookies make Porto 8/13 (1.62) to get the Most Booking Points
tonight, and just 4/7 (1.57) to get the First Card.

However, so far Porto have only got the Most Booking Points in 1 of
their 4 away games - and they haven't got the First Card in ANY.
Man Utd don't have strong Most Bookings / First Cards stats either
though - so these markets look best avoided.

One 'special' bet is worth a mention though...

Wayne Rooney was booked in both legs of Man Utd's tie with Inter
Milan in the previous round. If he gets another card tonight he
will miss the 2nd leg in Porto next week. Betfair are running a 'To
Receive a Card' market for tonight's game - and Expekt.com offer
11/4 (3.75) for Rooney to 'Receive a Card in regular time.'

CORNERS

The stats say Man Utd should be backed to get the Most Corners
tonight...

Man Utd home corners:
This season = 6.25 For / 2.25 Against
Last season = 8.50 For / 4.00 Against

Porto away corners:
This season = 5.00 For / 7.25 Against
Last season = 3.00 For / 7.00 Against

Man Utd have out-cornered opponents in 3 out of 4 games at Old
Trafford so far, and covered a '-3 Corner Handicap' in all 3 of
those games.

Last season Man Utd won the Most Corners in 100% of home games, and
landed '-3 Corner Handicap' bets in all but one of them - winning
at least 4 corners more than their opponent in 5 out of 6 games.

Porto have only won the Most Corners once in 4 away games so far
this season, and last season they conceded more corners than they
won in ALL of their away games (4 out of 4).

And finally, a look at the Match Result market...

MATCH RESULT

Man Utd are unbeaten in their last 21 Champions League games, which
is a European record.

Man Utd haven't failed to win a home 'knockout tie' game in the
Champions League since February 2005. That run is made up of 7 home
wins a row - against Inter Milan, Barcelona, Roma (twice), Lyon, AC
Milan and Lille.

Porto have played 3 away 'knockout tie' games in the last 3
Champions League seasons - drawing once and losing twice.

And in the last 3 seasons overall, Porto have faced Premier League
teams 4 times - and lost every time. Arsenal beat them twice -
including a 4-0 win earlier this season - and Chelsea and Liverpool
have also recorded home Champions League wins over Porto since
2006/7.

• Man Utd are 2/5 (1.40) to win.

And for tonight's second game...

Villarreal v Arsenal

Live on ITV4, kick off 7.45pm
Ref: Tom Henning Ovrebo

GOALS

Arsenal and Villarreal met in the Champions League Semi Finals back
in 2006 - and there was only one goal scored in total across the
two games (0-0 in Villarreal and 1-0 Arsenal at home).

The recent stats also point to a 'low Goals' game:

• 75% of Villarreal home games AND Arsenal away games have paid
  out 'Under 2.5 Goals' bets so far this season

Villarreal have beaten Celtic 1-0, and drawn 0-0 with Man Utd and
1-1 with Panathiakos. Their only 'Over 2.5 Goals' game was a
'freaky' 6-3 win over Aalborg in the Group Stages.

Arsenal have drawn 1-1 with Dynamo Kiev, and lost 2-0 at Porto and
1-0 at Roma. Their only 'Over 2.5' game was also by an
unpredictable score-line, a 5-2 win against Fenerbahce.

Also, Arsenal will be without their top scorer, Robin van Persie,
for tonight's game.

• Although the bookies aren't offering much value, Under 2.5 Goals
  looks a good option tonight. The best price is 4/7 (1.57).

BOOKING POINTS

The stats don't highlight any good match-ups in the Booking Points
and First Card markets (check out the Head-2-Head page on our site
for the full stats).

CORNERS

The 'Total Corners' stats match-up pretty well here...

Villarreal home corners:
7.50 For / 2.25 Against
Average Total = 9.75 per game

Arsenal away corners:
6.25 For / 3.50 Against
Average Total = 9.75 per game

Last season 80% of Arsenal's Champions League games - home and away
- paid out on Under 10.5 Corners bets (Villarreal weren't in the
Champions League last season).

Both teams have got 50-50 records for 'Over' and 'Under' 10.5
Corners games so far this season. But as the For and Against stats
show, neither team concedes many corners - a factor that could lead
to an 'Under 10.5' game tonight.

• A good example here would be Villarreal's game with Man Utd
  earlier this season - who, like Arsenal, are a strong away corner
  winner and low corner conceder. The corner count in that game was
  5-4 to Villarreal - making a total of 9 corners.

Most bookies are betting 'Under 10 Corners' tonight at around Evens
(2.00). That pays out on a total of 9 or less corners. However,
there are better options available with Expekt and Bet365...

The Match Result option with the biggest price looks the most
appealing here...

MATCH RESULT

Villarreal have proved hard to beat at home in the Champions League
- and Arsenal don't have a great away record...

Villarreal have never lost at home in the Champions League -
they've played 7 home games in total, won 4 and drawn 3. They have
drawn their last 2 home Champions League games.

Going back as far as the 2004/5 Champions League season, Arsenal
have only won 2 out of 8 away 'knockout tie' games.

Villarreal have drawn 50% of their Champions League games this
season - 4 draws from 8 games.

• The Draw is available at 9/4 (3.25) tonight.

Boost your odds with these Doubles...

Two of the bets highlighted above can be backed in a Double at 6/5 -
Man Utd to win and Villarreal v Arsenal to be Under 2.5 Goals...

And for bigger odds, why not mix-and-match any of the bets
highlighted in today's email.

Looking at the Match Result markets, a Double on Man Utd to win and
Villarreal v Arsenal to be a Draw pays out at over 7/2 (4.50+)...

• Man Utd to win @ 2/5 AND Arsenal to Draw @ 9/4 - the Double
  pays out at 4.55 with Skybet and Totesport

You can find the best odds on any bet on tonight's games here:

http://odds.sportsbettingxtra.co.uk/football/champions-league/matches/

Both games kick off at 7.45pm tonight, so get your bets on as soon
as you can. I'll write to you again tomorrow morning with the
latest results - and your best bets for Wednesday night's games...

Good luck!

Matt Nesbitt

Champions League Profit Service
www.ChampionsLeagueBet.co.uk
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