The Champions League is back - the Knockout Stages kick off with 4
games tonight...
Take a look at the stats below and get your bets on ASAP. You can
follow all the action live on our website, where all the Goals,
Scorers, Corners and Bookings stats are updated LIVE in-play, from
7.45pm to the final whistle.
You can also get an at-a-glance guide to the best bets on every
game on the Head-2-Head page...
www.ChampionsLeagueBet.co.uk
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Tonight's bets
Here are our 3 Recommended Bets for tonight's games...
Arsenal v Roma
7.45pm
Live on ITV4
Ref: Claus Bo Larsen
Match odds:
Arsenal Draw Roma
Evens 9/4 7/2
Corners
Arsenal are a strong home corner winner. They have won the most
corners in 3 out of 3 Champions League games at the Emirates
Stadium so far this season. In fact, that form holds up if you
include their away games, too - Arsenal have won the most corners
in 83% of all their Champions League games this season.
Roma, on the other hand, have been 'out-cornered' in 4 out of 6
Champions League games so far - including 2 out of 3 away games.
The Head-2-Head data on our website shows that Arsenal are
averaging 6 corners per home game MORE than their opponents. And
that Roma away are averaging 2 corners less than their opponents
per game.
Both teams' domestic form matches up well here...
-
Arsenal have won the most corners, by at least 2 corners, in
84% of their home Premier League games so far this season - 11 out
of 13 games
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Roma have only won the most corners in 5 of their 13 away
games in Italy's Serie A so far this season (38%)
And last season's Champions League form is strong, too...
- Arsenal won the most corners in 4 out of 5 home Champions
League games last season
The '2007/8 Team Stats Archive' on our website shows Arsenal
averaged over 3 corners a game more than their opponents last
season - 6.0 Corners For and 2.4 Corners Against.
- Roma didn't win the most corners in any of their away
Champions League games last season - their opponents 'out-cornered'
them 5 times out of 5
In the 2007/8 Champions League, Roma averaged 3 corners less than
their opponents per away game - 4.6 Corners For and 9.0 Corners
Against.
Corner Handicap bets available tonight...
The best Arsenal 'Corner Handicap' on offer for tonight's game is
only available with one bookmaker - Arsenal '-1.5 Corner Handicap'
at 8/11 (1.73) with William Hill. That bet wins if Arsenal win at
least 2 corners more than Roma.
Several other bookies offer Arsenal with a '-2 Corner Handicap' at
bigger odds - best price 6/5 (2.20) with Stan James. That bet wins
if Arsenal win at least 3 corners more than Roma.
And Bet365 offer Arsenal '-2' at Evens (2.00) on their 'Asian
Handicap Corners' market. That bet wins if Arsenal win at least 3
corners more than Roma - AND it also gives you your money back if
they win exactly 2 more.
Any of those bets would have paid out a winner on all 3 of
Arsenal's home games so far this season.
Or...
- Back Arsenal '-2 Corner Handicap' @ Evens+ (2.00+) - and have
a saver bet on the 'Corner Handicap Tie' @ 13/2+ (7.50+).
Staking around 1/6th of your main stake on the saver bet will leave
you around level overall if Arsenal win exactly 2 corners more than
Roma. For example:
£10 on Arsenal '-2 Corner Handicap' @ 6/5 with Stan James = £22
return
£1.66 on the 'Corner Handicap Tie' @ 13/2 with Stan James =
£12.45 return
Overall profit if Arsenal win at least 3 corners more than Roma =
£10.34
Overall profit if Arsenal win exactly 2 corners more than
Roma = £0.79
Lyon v Barcelona
7.45pm
Live on Sky Sports
Ref: Wolfgang Stark
Match odds:
Lyon Draw Barcelona
10/3 12/5 Evens
Booking Points
Lyon played Barcelona in the Champions League Group Stages last
season, and there were 60 Booking Points in that game (6 yellow
cards).
And as the data on our website shows, these teams have played out
a high percentage of 'Over 35 Booking Points' games both this
season and last season...
-
100% of Lyon's home Champions League games have gone 'Over 35
Points' this season (3 out of 3)
-
2 of Barcelona's 3 away games have gone 'Over 35 Points'
Lyon's home games are averaging a total of 53.2 Booking Points so
far. And Barcelona's away games are averaging 51.6 points per game.
Those are high averages when compared to the bookies' usual betting
marker of '35 Points.'
Booking Points bets available tonight...
The lowest Booking Points marker for tonight's game is with Betfred
- they offer '40 Or More' points at 8/13 (1.62). (See below for
other bookies' markets.)
If you'd had that bet on all of Lyon's home games and all of
Barcelona's away games in the 2007/8 Champions League, you'd have
landed 9 out of 10 winners...
-
4 out of 4 Lyon home games had at least 40 Booking Points
last season (100%)
-
5 out of 6 Barcelona away games had 40 or more Booking Points
last season (83%)
And if you'd had the same bet on all of Lyon's home games and all
of Barcelona's away games so far this season, you'd have backed 5
out of 6 winning bets.
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RECOMMENDED BET:
- '40 Or More' Booking Points at 8/13 (1.62) with Betfred
Bet Now!
You'll find that '40 Or More' bet in the 'Total Cards' market on
the Betfred website - www.Betfred.com.
That bet pays out if there are 4 or more yellow cards in the game
(or 2 yellows and a red).
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Or...
- 'Asian Total Cards - Over 4' @ 17/20 (1.85) with Bet365
That 'Asian Total Cards' bet gives you your money back if there are
exactly 4 cards in the match...
http://odds.sportsbettingxtra.co.uk/football/champions-league/
Also available...
Paddy Power offer 6/5 (2.20) for '45 Points Or More' and 4/1 (5.00)
for '35 to 40 Points Inclusive.'
And Blue Square offer 'Over 40 Booking Points' at 5/4 (2.25) and
exactly '40 Points' at 4/1 (5.00).
You can cover both those options and make a profit either way from
a 40-point+ Booking total by placing around 70% of your stake on the
'Over' option and the other 30% of the 4/1 option.
Check for the best Booking Points odds here:
http://odds.sportsbettingxtra.co.uk/football/champions-league/
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Booking Points bets explained...
Most bookies use this Booking Points system:
Yellow Card = 10 pts, Red Card = 25 pts.
The most one player can get in a game is 35 pts (2 yellows
resulting in a red).
Bet365's 'Cards' market works like this:
Yellow Card = 1 card, Red Card = 2 cards
The most one player can get in a game is 3 cards (2 yellows
resulting in a red).
- Check with the bookie you use for their specific rules. For
example, Betfair have their own Booking Points system.
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Inter Milan v Man Utd
7.45pm
Live on ITV1
Ref: Luis Medina Cantalejo
Match odds:
Inter Draw Man Utd
6/4 21/10 11/5
Goals
The Head-2-Head data on our site shows both these teams have 'low'
goals averages this season...
Inter Milan's home games are averaging 1.34 total goals so far. And
Man Utd's away games are averaging 1.66.
-
100% of Inter's games at the San Siro stadium have gone
'Under 2.5 Goals' (3 out of 3)
-
2 of Man Utd's 3 away games have gone 'Under 2.5 Goals'
If you backed 'Under 2.5 Goals' in all Inter's home games and all
Man Utd's away games so far, you've have backed 5 out of 6 winning
bets.
The domestic form matches up well with the Champions League
figures...
-
Inter Milan - 7 out of 12 home Serie A games 'Under 2.5
Goals' so far this season (58.3%)
-
Man Utd - 10 out of 13 away Premier League games 'Under 2.5
Goals' so far this season (76.9%)
Last season, half of Inter's home Champions League games and 83% of
Man Utd's away games went 'Under 2.5 Goals.'
Goals bets available tonight...
It looks like the bookies are expecting a 'low goals' game tonight
- the best price on offer for 'Under 2.5 Goals' is 4/7 (1.57) Stan
James and Skybet.
Ladbrokes offer 1.97 for 'Under 2' in their 'Goal Line' market.
That bet pays out a winner if there are no goals or 1 goal in the
game, and gives you your money back if there are exactly 2 goals
scored (also available at 1.95 with Bet365).
Elsewhere, in the 'Total Goals' markets, '0-1 Goals' is a 13/8-shot
(2.63) and 'Exactly 2 Goals' is 5/2 (3.50).
You can find the best odds on any Goals bets for this game here:
http://odds.sportsbettingxtra.co.uk/football/champions-league/
Go for a 2/1 'Treble' tonight...
For our third Recommended Bet, we're going for a 2/1 'Treble' based
on those Inter v Man Utd goals stats - and two of the best 'home
win' prospects from tonight's fixture list...
Inter Milan v Man Utd - 'Under 2.5 Goals' @ 8/15+
(See above for the stats on this one.)
Arsenal v Roma - Arsenal 'Draw No Bet' @ 4/11+
Arsenal have gone 22 home Champions League games without defeat -
an impressive home record. In their 3 Group games this season, they
didn't concede a single goal at the Emirates Stadium. Arsenal host
Roma tonight - the Italian side have lost their last 5 away games
in England in a row.
Atletico Madrid v Porto - Atletico 'Draw No Bet' @ 2/5+
Atletico are unbeaten in the Champions League so far this season,
with 2 wins a draw from their 3 home Group games and one win and 2
draws from their away games.
-
Backing a team 'Draw No Bet' means you win if your team wins,
and the bet is void if the game is drawn.
-
A treble on Arsenal and Porto 'Draw No Bet' and Inter v Man
Utd 'Under 2.5 Goals' will only lose you money if Arsenal or Porto
lose at home, or if there are 3 or more goals in the Inter game.
You'll get odds of around 2/1 (3.00) for that Treble.
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RECOMMENDED BET:
- A Treble on: Arsenal 'Draw No Bet,' Atletico Madrid 'Draw No
Bet' and Inter Milan v Man Utd 'Under 2.5 Goals' @ 2/1+ (3.00+)
Bet Now!
That Treble is 3.22 with Paddy Power, 3.15 with Coral, 3.10 with Victor Chandler and 3.00 with Stan James.
You can find the best odds on those 3 bets here:
http://odds.sportsbettingxtra.co.uk/football/champions-league/matches/
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I'll write you again tomorrow with the latest results - and our
bets for Wednesday night's games...
Best wishes,
Matt Nesbitt
Champions League Service
www.ChampionsLeagueBet.co.uk
Find the Best Odds...
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