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It's here. Our first Match-Day of the 2008/9 Champions League
season...
There are 8 Group games being played tonight, and I've got
recommended bets for 4 of them for you in today's email.
You can view the full fixture list for tonight's games at our
Champions League Profit Service website (alongside the Scoreboard
on the homepage). From 7.45pm tonight - when all the games kick off
- the Scoreboard will go LIVE with all the match stats for every
game updating minute-by-minute.
www.ChampionsLeagueBet.co.uk
Password: ******
Tonight's bets
Here are your recommended bets for tonight's games. We've analysed
the statistics and form for every team and identified 5 standout
moneymaking opportunities across 4 games.
Let's start with last year's Champions League winners, Manchester
United...
Manchester United v Celtic
Tues 21st Oct, 7.45pm
Live on ITV1
Ref: Frank De Bleeckere
Form
Man Utd are the reigning Champions. So far in 2008/9 they've drawn
0-0 at home with Villarreal and won 3-0 away at Aalborg. Celtic
have drawn 0-0 at home against Aalborg and lost 1-0 away at
Villarreal.
Corners
Last season, Man Utd won the most corners in 100% of their home
Champions League games. They averaged over 4 corners more than
their opponent in those games - 8.5 Corner For and 4.0 Corners
Against. Betting on Man Utd with a '-3.5 Corner Handicap' would
have paid out in 83% of those games.
In their only home game so far this season, Man Utd won 5 corners
and Villarreal won 0.
In the 2007/8 season Celtic didn't get the most corners in any of
their 4 away games. They averaged 3.5 Corners For and 8.5 Corners
Against. In their first away game this season, they won 3 corners
and Villarreal won 9.
Alternatively:
Bet on Man Utd with a '-4 Corner Handicap' @ Evens (2.00) or bigger
- AND have a saver bet on the 'Corner Handicap Tie' @ 13/2 (7.50).
This bet wins if Man Utd get 5 or more corners more than Celtic,
and the Handicap will be a 'Tie' if Man Utd get exactly 4 corners
more than Celtic. Staking 1/6th of your main bet on your saver bet
will cover you overall if the Handicap is a 'Tie'.
You can find the latest odds on these bets here:
http://odds.sportsbettingxtra.co.uk/football/champions-league/matches/
Goals
Man Utd won all 6 of their home games last season, and only
conceded one goal at Old Trafford. Their home results were: 1-0, 4-
0, 2-1, 1-0, 1-0 and 1-0. Backing Man Utd 'To Win To Nil' would
have paid out on 5 out of 6 occasions.
Man Utd have kept a 'Clean Sheet' in both their 2008/9 Champions
League games so far this season.
Celtic didn't score a single away goal in the Champions League last
season, and they were beaten 'To Nil' in all 4 games. Their away
results were: 2-0, 1-0, 1-0 and 1-0. So far in 2008/9 Celtic have
not scored a goal in the Champions League - drawing 0-0 at home and
losing 1-0 away.
Man Utd are 2/7 (1.28) to beat Celtic. But you can get get better
value odds of Evens (2.00) and 8/11 (1.72) for Man Utd 'To Win To
Nil'.
Villarreal v Aalborg
Tues 21st Oct, 7.45pm
Live on Sky Sports Xtra
Ref: Florian Meyer
Form
Villarreal have drawn 0-0 at Man Utd and won 1-0 at home to Celtic.
Aalborg drew 0-0 at Celtic and lost 3-0 at home to Man Utd.
Goals
Neither of these teams were in the Champions League last season. So
far in 2008/9 they have played 2 games each. Villarreal have kept 2
'Clean Sheets' (not conceded any goals). Aalborg have not scored
any goals.
Villarreal are a strong home team. In their domestic league
(Spain's La Liga) they have won all 3 of their games so far this
season (and only conceded one goal). Last season they finished 2nd
in La Liga and had the third-best home defensive record, conceding
less than a goal per game on average.
The bookies make Villarreal the 1/5 (1.20) favourite to beat
Aalborg tonight. But you can get 8/13+ (1.61) for them 'To Win To
Nil'.
Fenerbahce v Arsenal
Tues 21st Oct, 7.45pm
Live on ITV4
Ref: Peter Fröjdfeldt
Form
Fenerbahce have lost 3-1 at Porto and drawn 0-0 at home with Dynamo
Kiev. Arsenal have drawn 1-1 at Dynamo Kiev and won 4-0 at home to
Porto.
Corners
Last season, 80% of all Arsenal's Champions League games were
'Under 10.5 Corners' (8 out of 10 games). That includes 80% of
their away games. Arsenal's away averages were 4.20 Corners For and
4.20 Corner Against. (In their only away game so far this season,
there were 11 corners.)
There were also 'Under 11 Corners' in 80% of all Fenerbahce's
Champions League games last season (8 out of 10 games). That also
includes 80% of their home games, where they averaged 4.20 Corners
For and 4.8 Corners Against. (In their only home game so far, there
were 10 corners.)
Steaua Bucharest v Lyon
Tues 21st Oct, 7.45pm
Live on Sky Sports Extra (interactive)
Ref: Grzegorz Gilewski
Form
Steaua Bucharest have lost 1-0 at home to Bayern Munich and drawn
0-0 away at Fiorentina so far. Lyon have drawn 2-2 at home with
Fiorentina and 1-1 away at Bayern Munich.
Corners
Both these teams were 'low' corner winners in the Champions League
last season.
Steaua Bucharest averaged 2.3 Corners For (and 3.0 Against) at home
- Lyon averaged 4.25 Corners For (and 7.25 Corners Against) away.
All 3 of Steaua Bucharest's home games had 'Under 10.5 Corners' in
total. There were 9 corners in their only home game so far this
season - and Bucharest only won 3 of them.
50% of Lyon's away games were 'Under 10.5 Corners' in 2007/8. Their
only away game so far this season had 10 corners - with Lyon
only winning one corner.
Steaua Bucharest and Lyon both have poor 'Corners For' stats - and
that suggests a low number of corners in the game tonight.
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RECOMMENDED BET:
-
'Under 10 Corners' @ Evens (2.00) with Stan James, Betdirect
and Coral
-
AND have a saver bet on 'Exactly 10 Corners' @ 15/2 (8.50).
This bet wins if... there are less than 10 corners in total in the
game. Staking 1/7th of your main bet on your saver bet will cover
you overall if there are 'Exactly 10 Corners'.
You can find the latest odds on this bet here:
http://odds.sportsbettingxtra.co.uk/football/champions-league/matches/
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Here's a summary of our recommended bets for tonight's games.
TONIGHT'S RECOMMENDED BETS
Tuesday 21st October 2008
Man Utd v Celtic:
-
Man Utd '-3.5 Corner Handicap' @ 4/6
(or Man Utd '-4 Corner Handicap' @ Evens+ and a saver bet on the
'Corner Handicap Tie' @ 13/2)
-
Man Utd 'To Win With A Clean Sheet' @ Evens
or Man Utd 'To Win To Nil' @ 8/11
Villarreal v Aalborg:
- Villarreal 'To Win With A Clean Sheet' @ 7/10
or Villarreal 'To Win To Nil' @ 8/13
Fenerbahce v Arsenal:
- 'Under 10.5 Corners' @ 19/20
or 'Under 11 Corners' @ 10/11
Steaua Bucharest v Lyon:
- 'Under 10 Corners' @ Evens
(and a saver bet on 'Exactly 10 Corners' @ 15/2)
You can find the best odds on any bet on tonight's Champions League
games here:
http://odds.sportsbettingxtra.co.uk/football/champions-league/matches/
If you're new to football betting, you can find explanations of all
the betting categories - such as Corners and Goals - in the 'Help'
section of our website. Remember you can also follow the live stats
for every game on our Live Scoreboard...
www.ChampionsLeagueBet.co.uk
Password: ******
If you have any betting queries the website doesn't answer, you can
email us at: championsleaguebet@oxonpress.com
Good luck with your bets tonight. I'll write to you again tomorrow
morning with tonight's results - and our recommended bets for
Wednesday's games.
Best wishes,
Matt Nesbitt
Champions League Service
www.ChampionsLeagueBet.co.uk
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