First Knockout round - 1st leg results:

Arsenal 0 AC Milan 0
Celtic 2 Barcelona 3
Fenerbahce 3 Sevilla 2
Lyon 1 Man United 1
Liverpool 2 Inter Milan 0
Schalke 1 Porto 0
Roma 2 Real Madrid 1
Olympiacos 0 Chelsea 0

How the odds have changed…

Liverpool were 5/4 to ‘Qualify from the Tie’ before they beat Inter
Milan. They are now 1/3 favourites to progress. Liverpool will go
through unless they lose by more than 2 goals (2-0 Inter would take
the tie to extra time).

At 8/11 Real Madrid are still favourites to go through against Roma
(Evens), although they trail 2-1 after losing in Italy . Real need a
1-0 win or a win by two goals or more to go through (a 2-1 win
would see extra time).

Schalke were 5/4 to Qualify before their 1-0 win over Porto . The
German side are now 4/7 favourites to go through. To turn the tie
in their favour Porto need to win the home leg by 2 goals or more
(1-0 would take it to extra time).

Elsewhere the other 1st leg ‘pre-match’ favourites are still all
odds-on to go through to the Quarter Finals – Man Utd, Sevilla, and
Chelsea. And Barcelona are in the most comfortable position of all,
as the only side to have won their away leg (scoring 3 ‘away goals’
at Celtic). The Spanish side are 1/100 (!) to go through to the
Quarter Finals, and also remain 7/2 favourites to win the Champions
League outright.

Last season vs. This season…

A look at the 1st legs from the 2006/7 Champions League first
knockout stage shows a few statistical trends in the main betting
markets consistent with last week’s games:

THIS SEASON: First Knockout stage, 1st legs stats

Match Results: 4 home wins, 3 draws and 1 away win
2.5 Goals: 5/8 Under, 3/8 Over
35 Bookings Points: 6/8 Over, 2/8 Under
10.5 Corners: 5/8 Under, 3/8 Over
First Card: 5/8 away team First Card, 3/8 home team First Card
Time of First Goal: 4/6 before 28th minute, 2/6 after
 
LAST SEASON: First Knockout stage, 1st legs stats

Match Results: 2 home wins, 4 draws and 2 away wins
2.5 Goals: 5/8 Under, 3/8 Over
35 Bookings Points: 5/8 Over, 3/8 Under
10.5 Corners: 8/8 Under
First Card: 6/8 away team First Card, 2/8 home team First Card
Time of First Goal: 4/6 before 28th minute, 2/6 after

In particular, high Bookings counts and low corners & goals totals
were similar over the two seasons, with trends towards ‘early’
goals too.

With those similarities in mind, here are the same figures for last
season’s 2nd leg games:

LAST SEASON: First Knockout stage, 2nd legs stats

Match Results: 3 home wins, 2 away wins and 3 draws
2.5 Goals: 6/8 Under, 2/8 Over
35 Bookings Points: 7/8 Over, 1/8 Under
10.5 Corners: 4/8 Over, 4/8 Under
First Card: 5/8 away team First Card, 3/8 home
Time of First Goal: 3/6 before 28th minute, 3/6 after

The most significant figures to look out for there are the high
bookings counts, and the low goals tallies…

Of course, each game is different and depends on the result needed
by either team to make it through to the tie. So we’ll be looking
in detail at the all the 2nd legs in your emails before Tuesday &
Wednesday’s games.

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Now for a progress report on one of the most popular Champions
League markets. Who will be the Top Goalscorer?

Champions League 2007/08 – Top Scorer…

(Available Each Way terms – 1/4 odds, 1-3 places.)

After scoring twice against Celtic, Barcelona ’s Lionel Messi is now
Top Scorer on 6 goals, making him the bookies’ favourite to win the
‘Golden Boot’ at 10/3.

Movers and shakers…

Ibrahimovic (Inter Milan) and Ronaldo (Man Utd) stay on 5 goals,
while Liverpool ’s Steven Gerrard moves onto 5 after scoring last
week. Gerrard was 50/1 in this market before the knockout stages
began (he’s now 14/1). Ibrahimovic has drifted out from 6/1 joint-
favourite to 12/1, with the bookies reacting to Inter’s defeat at
Liverpool .

Also on the list we have eight players on 4 goals each, across a
wide range of prices…

For instance, the three Real Madrid players are all level on 4
goals, but there’s a big difference in opinion at the bookies
between 6/1 van Nistelrooy and his two team-mates. Robinho is 25/1,
and in particular club captain Raul is a big-looking 20/1 after his
goal in Rome last week.

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8 more games to cash-in on next week!
 
The website and its team comparison stats are being updated for you
with all the 1st leg figures this week. And all the 2nd leg games
will be covered on our Live Scoreboard with minute-by-minute
updates on every Goal, Corner and Booking. All the info you need to
find – and settle – your winning bets…

www.ChampionsLeagueBet.co.uk

Look out for more emails from us between now and Tuesday, ahead of
the next 8 games…

Best wishes,

Matt Nesbitt
Champions League Bet
www.ChampionsLeagueBet.co.uk