After a tremendous night of action last night, we've got the remaining
two Quarter Finals to look forward to this evening…
Man Utd v Roma and Barcelona v Schalke are live on Sky Sports
from 7.45pm tonight. Once again we've previewed both games for you and selected the standout stats using the Head-to-Head tool (available on the website). You can follow all the Corners, Goals and Bookings stats live minute by minute at:
www.ChampionsLeagueBet.co.uk
Clicking on 'Best odds for this match' under the Scoreboard on each game
will take you to the Champions League section of our odds comparison
website, where you can find the Best Odds for all your bets this evening.
Before we look at tonight's stats let's go over Tuesday's results…
Liverpool 4 Arsenal 2
(Liverpool win 5-3 on aggregate)
What a night at Anfield! We had both games up on our screens here, but
most eyes were on this one for most of the evening…
The Stats said: Draw @ 2/1 - LOST
Liverpool set up another all-English tie after beating Arsenal last night
– they will now face Chelsea in the Semi Finals. This game swung one way
then another, with the 1-1 and then 2-2 draw both looking likely for
periods of the game, until 2 late Liverpool goals sealed the victory.
The Stats said:
Liverpool 'Most Corners' @ 8/11 or Liverpool '–1 Corner Handicap' @ 5/4 -
WON
The stats suggested the home team could win the most corners here and so
it proved, Liverpool winning 5 compared to Arsenal's 2. Liverpool have
now won the most corners in 100% of their home Champions League games
this season.
Chelsea 2 Fenerbahce 0
(Chelsea win 3-2 on aggregate)
Chelsea got the win they needed to overturn their 2-1 defeat in the 1st
leg and make it through to the Semi Finals…
The Stats said:
Fenerbahce 'Most Bookings' @ 8/13 or Fenerbahce 'First Card' @ 8/13 -
LOST
This one went against the Bookings stats, with Chelsea picking up the
only 2 cards in the game, both in the last 5 minutes.
The Stats said:
'Under 10 Corners' @ 6/5 or 11/10 - WON
Both teams have got low Corners stats home & away in the Champions League
this season, and they produced another low total here. There were just 4
corners in the game, well below the bookies' line of '10'.
The Stats said:
Fenerbahce '+4 Corner Handicap' @ Evens - WON
The Corners stats showed Chelsea average 2 corneers more than their
opponents at home, and last night's tally matched-up perfectly to that.
Chelsea got 3 corners, Fenerbahce got 1. The bookies' '+4 Corner
Handicap' gave good value on the away team, making the 'Corner Handicap
result' 3-4 in Fenerbahce's favour.
You can view all last night's results and all tonight's live stats online
at:
www.ChampionsLeagueBet.co.uk
Password: acmilan7
Now for a look at tonight's big games…
MANCHESTER UNITED v ROMA
Kick off 7.45pm
Live on Sky Sports 1
Match odds:
Man Utd Draw Roma
4/6 (1.66) 5/2 (3.50) 9/2 (5.50)
1st leg result: 0-2 Man Utd
How it stands - after the 1st leg…
Man Utd bagged two away goals in Italy last week with strikes from Top
Scorer Cristiano Ronaldo and Wayne Rooney.
To Qualify for the Semi Finals, Man Utd need to avoid a defeat of 2 goals
or more. A win or draw puts them through, losing by 1 goal would still
put them through, and losing 2-0 would mean Extra Time.
Roma need to win, and have to score at least 2 goals to have a chance of
going through.
Match Result
These teams have played each other 3 times already this season, having
been in the same Champions League Group. Man Utd won 1-0 at home last
time with a goal by Rooney. The two away games between Man Utd and Roma
have been a 1-1 draw in the Group stage and the 2-0 Man Utd win last
week.
Man Utd have won 4 of their home Champions League games in 2007/8, and a
win tonight would give them a record 11th straight home win in the
competition. They are the odds-on favourite to beat Roma (4/6), but it's
worth noting that Man Utd don't actually need to win in order to go
through to the Semi Finals.
The Stats Say:
Man Utd have a 100% home record so far, and 3 of those 4 wins have been
by a 1-goal margin of victory. Roma have only lost once away (and that
was to Man Utd).
Odds of 4/6 for the home win don't offer great value. Better to consider
a couple of options, covering both the Draw AND a narrow Man Utd win…
- The Draw is available @ 11/4 (3.75) with Ladbrokes or 27/10 (3.70)
with Victor Chandler (5/2 in general)
And
- Man Utd to win by 1 goal is available @ 13/5 (3.60) with
Boylesports in their 'Winning Margin' market, or 5/2 with Stan James,
Paddy Power, Betdirect or Betfred in the 'Match Handicap – Tie' market.
Alternatively, you could consider a couple of Correct Scores: Man Utd 1-0
@ 11/2 and 2-0 @ 7/1 (these have paid out in 75% of Man Utd's home games)
Covering both the above options for the same stakes – the Draw and the
Man Utd win by 1 goal – at 5/2+ will give an overall profit if one of
them wins.
Corners
Man Utd have strong Corners stats at home. They average 8.25 Corners For
and 3.0 Against. Roma average 3.75 Corner For away, and 8.0 Against. Man
Utd's corner-winning ability and Roma's tendency to concede corners
matches up well in the Corner Handicap market…
At home, Man Utd have won the Most Corners in all of their home games. In
fact, they have at least 4 corners more than their opponent in every
game, meaning backing Man Utd with a –3 Corner Handicap or less would
have paid out 100% of the time in their Champions League home games.
Here are those corner counts: 6-2, 13-4, 7-3 and 7-3. Tonight the bookies
have given Man Utd a '-2 Corner Handicap', which looks decent value
considering the stats.
Roma have been 'out-cornered' in all their away games so far, with
tallies of: 2-6, 3-9, 6-7 and 4-10. Roma need to go for goals in this
game, but (as we saw with Chelsea v Fenerbahce last night) that doesn't
necessarily mean they will get stacks of corner kicks.
The Stats Say:
Both teams' stats clearly point to Man Utd getting the most corners in
the game. A '-1 Corner Handicap' is available with two bookies, and '-2'
is available across the board. The stats suggest Man Utd are capable of
covering either of those.
- Man Utd '-1 Corner Handicap' @ 1.88 with Expekt or '-1.5' @ 8/11
with William Hill
Or
- Man Utd '-2 Corner Handicap' @ 5/4 with Paddy Power, Evens with
Skybet and Betfred
(If you back Man Utd –2 on the Corner Handicap, we'd recommend a saver
bet on the 'Handicap Tie' @ 7/1 with Skybet to return your overall stakes
if Man Utd get exactly 2 corners more than Roma.)
Anytime Goalscorer
The Goalscorer stats are also worthy of attention here…
The Stats Say:
Cristiano Ronaldo is the tournament's current Top Scorer with 7 goals.
He's just 8/13 (1.61) to win the 2007/8 Golden Boot after scoring in Rome
last week…
Ronaldo is also the Premier League's Top Scorer this season with 27
goals. He's scored 6 goals in his last 5 games in all competitions, and
has scored in 8 of his last 10 games. Ronaldo's one of the safest bets in
football this season.
- Paddy Power are offering the best odds on Ronaldo scoring again
tonight – he is 4/1 (5.0) to be the First Goalscorer and 13/10 (2.30)
to Score Anytime
Another Man Utd player also stand outs in the Goalscorer markets…
The Stats Say:
Wayne Rooney has scored 4 goals in the Champions League this season. He
looks to be hitting goal-scoring form right now, with 4 goals in his last
3 games in all competitions.
Rooney has a particularly good record against tonight's opponent, Roma.
As well as scoring last week in Rome, he also scored the winner when Man
Utd beat them 1-0 at Old Trafford earlier this season. And in the
Champions League Quarter Finals last season, Rooney scored Man Utd's away
goal when they lost 2-1 in Italy, and was also on the score-sheet in the
7-1 win in the return leg.
- William Hill are offering the best odds on Rooney scoring tonight.
He's 9/2 (5.50) to be the First Goalscorer and 13/8 (2.62) to Score
Anytime
Find the Best Odds on this game at our odds comparison website:
odds.sportsbettingxtra.co.uk/football/champions-league/matches/
This evening's other Quarter Final 2nd leg is in Spain…
BARCELONA v SCHALKE
Kick off 7.45pm
Live on Sky Sports 3
Match odds:
Barcelona Draw Schalke
4/9 (1.44) 3/1 (4.0) 7/1 (8.0)
1st leg result: 0-1 Barcelona
How it stands - after the 1st leg…
Barcelona have the upper hand thanks to their away win in Germany last
week. They need a win or a draw to Qualify for the Semi Finals – if they
lose 1-0 the game will go to Extra Time. Schalke need to win.
Corners
Both these teams' Corners stats are on the 'high' side. Barcelona average
9.5 Corners For and 2.5 Against at home, Schalke average 7.25 For and
5.25 Against away. Those stats suggest a match total Over 10…
75% of Barcelona's home Champions League games have been Over 10 Corners,
and so have 75% of Schalke's away games.
The Stats Say:
- 'Over 10 Corners' @ 23/20 with Victor Chandler, 11/10 with Paddy
Power and Bet365 (or Evens in general)
(Also, have a saver bet on 'Exactly 10 Corners' @ 15/2 with Stan James,
Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfred or Betdirect – to cover your stakes in case
the corner count hits exactly on 10.)
Bookings
These teams have a contrasting set of Bookings stats. Barcelona average
just 7.5 Bookings Points For and 7.5 Against at home, while Schalke
average 27.5 Pts For and 22.5 Against.
Schalke have got the Most Bookings in 75% of their away games, and have
picked up 30 Pts (3 Yellow Cards) in 75% of games too. They have also
been shown the First Card in 75% of their away games (Barcelona have got
the First Card in 50% of their home games).
Barcelona have only got the Most Bookings in 25% of their home games, and
have picked up 0 Pts For (No Bookings) in 50% of games.
The Stats Say:
Barcelona's low stats and Schalke's high Bookings Points stats make the
away team the most likely to go in the ref's book in this game.
Schalke have got the Most Bookings in 75% of their away games and the
First Card in 75% too, so both these options appeal. The 'Most Bookings'
market is the sensible option as it covers the whole game.
- Schalke to be the 'Team Awarded Most Bookings Points' @ 4/6 with
William Hill (or 8/13 with Blue Square and 888 Sport)
Or
- Schalke to receive the 'First Card' @ 4/6 with Betfred
Find the Best Odds on this game at our odds comparison website:
odds.sportsbettingxtra.co.uk/football/champions-league/matches/
Note:
The stats markets such as Corners and Bookings apply to 'normal time'
results only. If a game goes to Extra Time, Corners and Bookings awarded
in that period do not count towards the total that the bet will be
settled on.
That's all for today – I'll write to you again on Thursday with all
tonight's results and the completed Semi Final draw.
Remember you can follow all your Champions League bets live at the
website, and click on the 'Best odds for this match' link to get the
latest prices on each game.
Best wishes,
Matt Nesbitt
Champions League Service
www.ChampionsLeagueBet.co.uk